Search for: All records

Abstract Studies have indicated exaggerated Maritime Continent (MC) barrier effect in simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a dominant source of subseasonal predictability in the tropics. This issue has plagued the modeling and operational forecasting communities for decades, while the sensitivity of MC barrier on MJO predictability has not been addressed quantitatively. In this study, perfect-model ensemble forecasts are conducted with an aqua-planet configuration of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) in which both basic state and tropical modes of variability are reasonably simulated with a Warm Pool-like SST distribution. When water-covered terrain mimicking MC land masses is added to the Warm Pool-like SST framework, the eastward propagation of the MJO is disturbed by the prescribed MC aqua-mountain. The MJO predictability estimate with the perfect-model experiment is about 6 weeks but reduces to about 4 weeks when the MJO is impeded by the MC aqua-mountain. Given that the recent operational forecasts show an average of 3-4 weeks of MJO prediction skill, we can conclude that improving the MJO propagation crossing the MC could improve the MJO skill to 5-6 weeks, close to the potential predictability found in this study (6 weeks). Therefore, more effort on understanding and improving the MJO propagation is needed to enhance the MJO and MJO-related forecasts to improve the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. 

Abstract Understanding air pollution in East Asia is of great importance given its high population density and serious air pollution problems during winter. Here, we show that the day-to-day variability of East Asia air pollution, during the recent 21-year winters, is remotely influenced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics. In particular, the concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 micron (PM 10 ) becomes significantly high when the tropical convections are suppressed over the Indian Ocean (MJO phase 5–6), and becomes significantly low when those convections are enhanced (MJO phase 1–2). The station-averaged PM 10 difference between these two MJO phases reaches up to 15% of daily PM 10 variability, indicating that MJO is partly responsible for wintertime PM 10 variability in East Asia. This finding helps to better understanding the wintertime PM 10 variability in East Asia and monitoring high PM 10 days. 

Abstract Future changes in boreal winter MJO teleconnections over the Pacific–North America (PNA) region are examined in 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models (CMIP6s) under SSP585 (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 following approximately the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5) scenarios. The most robust and significant change is an eastward extension (∼4° eastward for the multimodel mean) of MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific. Other projected changes in MJO teleconnections include a northward extension, more consistent patterns between different MJO events, stronger amplitude, and shorter persistence; however, these changes are more uncertain and less significant with a large intra- and intermodel spread. Mechanisms of the eastward teleconnection extension are investigated by comparing impacts of the future MJO and basic state changes on the anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS) and teleconnection pathways with a linear baroclinic model (LBM). The eastward extended jet in the future plays a more important role than the eastward-extended MJO in influencing the east–west position of MJO teleconnections. It leads to more eastward teleconnection propagation along the jet due to the eastward extension of turning latitudes before they propagate into North America. MJO teleconnections thus are positioned 2.9° more eastward in the North Pacific in the LBM. The eastward extended MJO, on the other hand, helps to generate a more eastward-extended RWS. However, negligible change is found in the east–west position of MJO teleconnections (only 0.3° more eastward in the LBM) excited from this RWS without the jet impacts. The above results suggest the dominant role of the jet change in influencing future MJO teleconnection position by altering their propagation pathways.